Pump up the Volume -
The Economic Trade-offs of Large Water Dams in South-East Asia

-- a _kt75 | reprint
 


 




Over the last two decades, Chinese governments have approved the construction of a cascade of large dams on the stretches of the Mekong River that lie within its borders, prompting disquiet amongst downstream riparian states.
Those states — Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam — are now set to wage their own battle for control of precious water resources, with China looming large through its role as a willing creditor.

Despite hydropower plans for the Lower Mekong dating back to the 1950s, the river still flows freely south of the Chinese border. That may not be the case for much longer. The governments of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam have proposed to build eleven dams on the Lower Mekong — nine in Laos and two in Cambodia. Much of the electricity generated would ultimately be consumed in Thailand and Vietnam through contract agreements between the four states. The first of these proposed dams is already under construction; and on 7 November 2012, Laos and Thailand held a ground-breaking ceremony at the site of the Thai-funded Xayaburi Dam, defying the Mekong River Commission’s call for a 10-year moratorium on dam-building along the Lower Mekong.

Although China’s upstream activities on the Mekong have generated distrust and disapproval further down the river, recipient governments have still enthusiastically welcomed large Chinese investments in Southeast Asia. Laos is a case in point. Of the nine proposed Laotian Mekong mainstream dams, Chinese financiers and developers have interests in at least four. China also has a stake in about half of the proposed 63 dams on Laotian Mekong tributaries. Outside of hydropower, Laos’ ruling politburo is now negotiating the terms of a US$7.2 billion Chinese loan to finance construction of a long-awaited high-speed railway between the two countries. That loan represents nearly 90 per cent of Laos’ US$8.3 billion GDP.

As a water engineer in Laos, China is acting in direct accordance with its strategic interests. It is locking up electricity supply deals and protecting regional geopolitical interests by securing crucial developing Southeast Asian neighbours as long-term debtors through high-interest loans. For the Laotian government, a potential future for their country as the ‘battery of Asia’ could just be a pathway to greater economic independence and long-awaited development.

However, Chinese dam building in Laos could also have serious negative consequences. The potential environmental impacts of large dams are well-documented — sediment build-up, landslides, destruction of fisheries, even seismic shifts. The Lower Mekong Basin is currently the largest inland fishery in the world. Laotians and Cambodians are particularly reliant on fish caught from the river to meet their protein needs; construction of the 11 planned dams would lead to an estimated 26–42 per cent loss in annual fish production. Even the apparent economic benefits of major investments in dam infrastructure and other major projects could prove to be a double-edged sword — inflation exacerbated by such large influxes of capital could cause cost-of-living pressures for many Laotians. Read on... & continue listen below  (limited weekend post... ;-)

Popular posts from this blog

Climate Change and its Effects on Water Resources/Supply

Renewables - Part I: Is Solar Energy Ready To Compete With Oil And Other Fossil Fuels?
- a status note -

The Red Line: The Potential Impact on Asia Gas Markets of Russia’s Eastern Gas Strategy